First 500 days

First Read takes notes of what's happened in Obama's first 500 days of office:

Day 500: With hyperpartisan stories like the Romanoff job offer (dredged back into the news), the kickoff of the Blagojevich trial, and, of course, the continued oil spill, it might go unnoticed by some that today is Barack Obama's 500th day in office (though, some might argue TOMORROW is 500; We’ll let Judge Mark Knoller decide, but we digress). There's always a lot of hype surrounding a president's first 100 days, but Obama has now been in office five times longer than that marker and what a stretch it's been. On a day -- in a presidency -- when small-picture brushfire stories (like Romanoff) are dominating, here's a step back at the big picture and all that's gone on. It could almost read like Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire”… Oil spill, Health care, Tea Parties, Financial reform, bailouts for cars and banks, the stimulus, Cash for Clunkers, Toyota, Haiti, L’Aquila, Iran's elections, David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Israel flotilla, North Korea sinks South Korean ship, Afghanistan troop increase, underwear bomber, Ft. Hood, Times Square, Predator drones, Nobel Peace Prize, State of the Union/Bobby Jindal, Ted Kennedy. Scott Brown, Michael Steele, Sarah Palin resigns, Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, special elections, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, incumbent fever (Bennett, Specter, et al), Charlie Crist's party switch, Evan Bayh, Sex Scandals: The Appalachian Trail, John Ensign, Eric Massa, Mark Souder, Jim Traficant out of jail, announces independent bid, The Salahis, Carrie Prejean, It’s John Edwards’ baby, Rangel loses his gavel, The Replacements: (Blago/Burris, Gillibrand/Caroline Kennedy, Beau Biden/Iraq/hospitalization, Al Franken sworn in as a senator MONTHS after Election Day, The Gores separate. And, by the way, for a little more context, remember this: JFK, at Day 500, had not yet faced the Cuban Missile Crisis and his attorney general, RFK, had yet to order the integration of Ole Miss. or the University of Alabama.

Thursday in Iran

Thursday was an important day of protests in Iran, with Green Movement supporters attempting to use the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution to demonstrate against fraud in the election that gave President Ahmadinejad a second term. The Daily Dish and Huffington Post both provided extensive coverage of the day's events; Juan Cole provides some analysis as to why the protests were not as successful as hoped.

Iran, Islam, and our future

Andrew Sullivan wrote today about the difficulties of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state and the challenges that the West faces as the Muslim world finds its way in the 21st century. Like him, I'm not highly optimistic. And I found some of my own thoughts echoed here:

I write this at the end of a decade that changed my politics. They changed because reality shifted. Globalization, technology and fundamentalism have reordered our post-Cold War world. The advantage lies with the asymmetrical, the nimble, the long tail, the lone actor. There is nothing the modern state can really do to stop this, and if it tries to assume the powers to have a chance, it will cease to resemble anything like the democracy or republic the Founders envisaged. We can panic and construct a Leviathan so powerful and invasive it will in the end destroy our freedoms, or we can hang in, do all we can to defuse ideological and theological tension, construct more effective means of defense and security, and outlast the Islamist wave even through what will be its many outrages and offenses.

This would be appeasement if strong military action were an effective alternative and could defeat the enemy. But if we have learned anything these past few years, it is that the mightiest military in the world cannot stop a lone fanatic eager to kill himself in order to kill countless others in a religious mission. Even if we were to transform Afghanistan, a Yemen would soon emerge. Even now after spending trillions on Iraq, we cannot stop al Qaeda returning when we leave to exploit sectarian divides.

What we need is sobriety, stoicism, vigilance and a determined defense of our values and the rule of law. We cannot save our civilization by junking it, by pre-emptive wars and torture and near-dictatorial executive power. And we cannot save it by politicizing every attack, thereby magnifying the power of one tiny terrorist with burnt balls to create havoc and division in the free world.

Iran fires on protesters

Coverage from the New York Times here and here and also The Daily Dish. At least four, and possibly closer to ten, people have been killed.

Huge, peaceful crowd of Iranian protesters

Amazing video of mourners/protesters at Ayatollah Montazeri's funeral procession:

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Power to the Iranian people.

Iran's Green Movement remains strong

The death of the senior cleric most critical of the Iranian regime has led to more large protests. From The Times:

Witnesses said that after yesterday’s ceremony Basij, the militia, attacked opposition supporters outside [Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali] Montazeri’s home and tore down black banners. Thousands of mourners also marched in Montazeri’s hometown of Najafabad, near the city of Isfahan.

The Green Movement appears to be emboldened and gaining momentum, and this is a week of great opportunity. The sacred month of Muharram culminates on Sunday in the emotionally charged holiday of Ashura, when Shia Muslims mourn the 7thcentury martyrdom of Prophet Muhammad’s grandson and the talk is of sacrifice.

The opposition is planning nationwide protests that day, and the fact that Ashura coincides with the seventh day since Montazeri’s death, an important date in the Shia mourning ritual, will give them greater impetus.

“Montazeri’s death could not have come at a worse time for the regime and it will rachet up the tensions considerably,” Dr Ansari said. “This has made an extremely fragile situation even worse for the Government and it will be scrambling to find a way to deal with it.”

More coverage from Juan Cole here and here.

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Behind the scenes: reducing the nuclear risk in Iran

Time has a great article about the behind the scenes diplomacy that the Obama administration initiated several months ago to turn Iran's existing supply of nuclear material into a safer form that could be used for medical purposes:

In early July, Obama traveled to Moscow, where his top nonproliferation aide, Gary Samore, floated a proposal to the Russians: If Iran would agree to export a supply of LEU to Moscow, the Russians could enrich it to the level needed to power the research reactor, and then the French, who had been brought into the discussions, could turn it into the specialized plates that are used to produce the isotopes. The plates, which Iran does not have the capacity to turn into weapons-grade uranium, would then be sent back to Tehran. "The Russians immediately said, 'Great idea,' " says the senior Administration official.

The deal continues to move forward, with Iranian negotiators agreeing to the deal today. Final approval from Tehran is still needed.

Late night news roundup

Ezra Klein dissects the latest health insurance agency report:

This is the house they've built: an insurance market where plans are written for the healthy and all legal efforts are made to exclude the sick. That's meant premiums are somewhat lower than they'd otherwise be, but only because the people who most need health-care insurance aren't able to afford it, or in some cases, aren't able to convince anyone to sell it to them. Now that arrangement is ending and they're scared that they can't provide an affordable product to the people who need it. They may be right, but it's evidence of how deeply perverse their business has become, not of what's wrong with health-care reform. When they say that the individual market would be cheaper in the absence of health-care reform, they're saying the individual market would be cheaper if they could continue refusing to sell affordable insurance to people who need health-care coverage.

This isn't an argument against health-care reform. This is proof of its necessity.

THE LAWSUIT AGAINST CALIFORNIA'S PROP. 8 moves forward:

A federal judge refused today to dismiss a lawsuit challenging California's ban on same-sex marriage, setting the stage for the nation's first trial on the constitutionality of a law allowing only opposite-sex couples to wed.

Chief U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker, in a ruling from the bench in San Francisco, said a trial was needed to resolve crucial issues, including whether gays and lesbians are persecuted minorities entitled to judicial protection from discriminatory laws. He has scheduled the trial for January.

SOME ANALYSTS THINK THAT IRAN, having gotten this close to being a nuclear power, may be ready to make a deal:

“If the Iranian endgame is to keep enrichment, and if the United States’ endgame is to make sure there are no nuclear weapons in Iran, then it can be a win-win,” said Trita Parsi, author of a book on Iran and president of the National Iranian American Council, an independent advocacy group in Washington. “Those who have been criticizing the administration for compromising or giving Iran a concession, they are wrong. It is not a concession to adjust to an unchanging reality.” ...

Tehran knows that actually deploying a weapon could undermine its regional strength by driving smaller oil-rich neighbors to seek their own nuclear umbrella, presumably from the United States. Rather, experts say, Iran’s intention all along was to strengthen its hand in dealing with the West, to achieve legitimacy, security and recognition of its leadership in the region. Iran’s meeting with the United States and Western powers in Geneva brought it within reach of those goals.

More on the notion of "nuclear latency" from Juan Cole.

Opposition continues in Iran

Those opposed to the tainted re-election of President Ahmadinejad hijacked a state-sponsored pro-Palestinian rally to demonstrate that the opposition has not died in Iran.

When government men shouted “Death to Israel” through loudspeakers, protesters derisively chanted “Death to Russia” in response. Many opposition supporters are angry about Russia’s quick acceptance of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory.

The three opposition leaders, Mir Hussein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami, joined the crowds in Tehran for the first time in months, drawing cheers.

Later, Basij militia members tried to attack Mr. Khatami and Mr. Karroubi, but defenders pushed them back, opposition Web sites reported.

Moussavi not backing down

Opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi remains defiant:

Opposition figures said Thursday that all but four of the 70 academics who had been arrested a day earlier after meeting with the main opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, had been released. There was no information about the remaining four. Hundreds of opposition supporters, intellectuals, and journalists have been detained in a wave of political arrests that has been depicted as the most sweeping since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

Mr. Moussavi himself has not appeared publicly since last week, and, in a statement on a Web site maintained by his supporters, complained Thursday that his “access to people is completely restricted.” Even as fears mounted in the opposition camp that the government was preparing the groundwork to detain Mr. Moussavi himself, however, he remained defiant.

“I will not back down even for a second, even for personal threats or interests,” according to the statement.

Calling the June 12 presidential election a “big fraud,” Mr. Moussavi said government security forces had “attacked protesters inhumanely, killed, injured or arrested them.” Going further, he said, “I am willing to show how election criminals have stood by those behind the recent riots and shed people’s blood.”

Mr. Moussavi also said in the statement that there were “recent pressures on me aimed at withdrawing” his challenge to the vote. “I insist on the nation’s constitutional right to protest against the election result and its aftermath,” he said, criticizing the closure in recent days of an opposition newspaper affiliated with him and the arrest of those who worked here.

The evolution of Iran

Roger Cohen points out today in his New York Times column that the 1979 Iranian revolution took place over the course of a year, with many periods of quiescence. What is happening now will not be resolved in a week or two, and the circumstances of June 2010 are as yet unknowable. But the course of Iran's history has likely been changed in these past two weeks.

Here's video from Obama's press conference today; he also said this (transcript here):

First, I'd like to say a few words about the situation in Iran. The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings and imprisonments of the last few days.

I strongly condemn these unjust actions, and I join with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost.

I've made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran and is not interfering with Iran's affairs.

But we must also bear witness to the courage and the dignity of the Iranian people and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore the violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place.

The Iranian people are trying to have a debate about their future. Some in Iran -- some in the Iranian government, in particular, are trying to avoid that debate by accusing the United States and others in the West of instigating protests over the elections.

These accusations are patently false. They're an obvious attempt to distract people from what is truly taking place within Iran's borders.

This tired strategy of using old tensions to scapegoat other countries won't work anymore in Iran. This is not about the United States or the West; this is about the people of Iran and the future that they -- and only they -- will choose.

The Iranian people can speak for themselves. That's precisely what's happened in the last few days. In 2009, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to peaceful protests of justice. Despite the Iranian government's efforts to expel journalists and isolate itself, powerful images and poignant words have made their way to us through cell phones and computers. And so we've watched what the Iranian people are doing.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

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Roger Cohen in Iran

I've heard the folks at CNN repeat over and over why they are not reporting from Tehran and instead relying on YouTube and Twitter.

So it's pretty refreshing that Roger Cohen of the New York Times is actually on the streets there and continuing to do his job as a journalist. He is putting himself at risk, but he's doing something immensely important for the world.

Here is his latest column in the Times.

And here is the video of Neda Soltani that his column refers to. Neda is the young woman who was shot to death at a peaceful protest on the 20th.

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Finally, Andrew Sullivan continues to do an amazing job of collecting, filtering, and passing on information from Iran.

This video brought tears to my eyes

Watch this BBC video showing a group of protesters in Iran who successfully turn back the police confronting them. Watch it to the end.

Iran summary from Informed Comment

Juan Cole has a comprehensive wrap-up of Saturday's events in Iran, including a link to Roger Cohen's great New York Times op-ed piece.

And there are more signs of conflict in Iran's leadership, with the speaker of the Iranian parliament contradicting the Supreme Leader.

Kissinger agrees with Obama's approach on Iran

I wish the neocon hacks would just shut up. Henry Kissinger agrees with Obama's measured approach to dealing with the crisis in Iran.

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It's morning in Tehran

Today may be a big day in Tehran. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear his patience with the protests has ended. The Iranian people are now looking to Mousavi for leadership: continue to take to the streets, risking a bloody crackdown, or back off?

It looks like protests are scheduled to begin at 4:30am PDT (4pm Saturday Tehran time).

Lots of good information at The Daily Dish and Informed Comment.

I think Obama is playing this well: in other words, not playing into the hands of the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad.

Today is day for solidarity of all freedom-loving people. Say a prayer, light a candle, or meditate for a peaceful and democratic outcome.

I've got green candles burning now in my window now.

Namaste!

Here we go: the debate! (live blogging)

I am on the couch, wearing my most over-the-top Obama shirt (the one Victor won't let me wear in public :-) and ready to go!!! All afternoon I've found it hard to concentrate on organic chemistry...

5:58pm - I didn't think that Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann were being allowed to anchor live political events anymore, but they seem to be on right before and right after the debate. Interesting.

6:08 - McCain seems to be wandering a bit already in his first answer to the question, where does he stand on the bailout?

6:11 - Obama seems on top of his game tonight. Clear, focused, concise. Forceful. And much stronger than some any of the Democratic debates.

6:14 - McCain just said that we were the biggest exporter and the "biggest importer." ??? Importing is good, lol?

And now he is saying that "we Republicans came to Congress to change government and it changed us." That's right! WE=YOU, John McCain.

Now he is bringing up an earmark which spent money on moose DNA in Montana... and I'm quite certain Sarah Palin had a similar project in Alaska. :-)

McCain has now made three references to being old. Weird.

6:16 - Obama cites figures: earmarks amount to only $18 billion annually and notes that McCain's plan cuts taxes for the wealthy by $300 million a year.

6:18 - Now McCain is bring up corruption.

6:19 - Obama interrupts McCain as he begins to misrepresent Obama's plan to cut taxes.

6:22 - McCain just said "divident" when he meant "exemption" while talking about taxes.

Obama is clearly far better prepared than McCain... he's backing up everything he says and is keeping it focused on what matters to Main Streeet.

And Obama is reminding America that McCain wants to tax employer healthcare benefits.

6:24 - McCain just repeated his "dividend" mistake. ???

6:26 - I have a feeling McCain is now wishing he hadn't grandstanded on the debate and returned to Washington... he's not prepared. And that weird grin doesn't cover it.

6:29 - Lehrer just asked Obama and McCain about their fiscal priorities given the financial crisis. Obama gave a long list of clear priorities: education, our infrastructure, new energy sources, etc.. McCain just said "cut costs" and gave two examples: ethanol subsidies and bad defense contracts.

6:37 - McCain keeps saying he knows how to cut spending. But what evidence is there of that? Obama is pointing out the same thing: it's George W. Bush who has gone on this "orgy of spending" and McCain has voted with him 95% of the time.

6:39 - "What are the lessons of Iraq?" McCain seems to hesitate in answering and only comes up with "a bad strategy" may get in the way of success. He's been taking lessons from Palin, lol.

6:43 - McCain finally gets to mention The Surge and use it against Obama. And he's energized by it.

6:44 - Obama deftly deflects that old "committee issue" by pointing out that the Foreign Relations Committee handles the issue that McCain thinks should have been handled by Obama's subcommittee, calling it "inside baseball," and returns fire on McCain. He reminds McCain that the war began in 2003 and not not 2007.

6:48 - In my opinion, McCain hasn't laid a glove on Obama so far.

6:53 - Unlike Sarah Palin, McCain blinks a lot.

6:56 - First Read notes that Obama is wearing a flag pin but McCain isn't!

6:58 - McCain's approach to the debate: look to the past and play up his record. But he's not saying much about his judgment.

7:01 - McCain looks mad. I think Obama is getting under his skin... he just addressed McCain directly, and he is responding through gritted teeth!

7:06 - Obama responds to a question about Iran by pointing out that Iran is stronger today than five years ago and that our current policy has had exactly the opposite effect as what is desired.

7:07 - Obama: "This notion we have that not talking to people is punishing them is a mistake."

7:10 - Obama is hammering home on the foreign policy failures of the last eight years, such as North Korea.

7:14 - The debate is almost over, and Obama is still relaxed. McCain is uptight. Obama is referring to some of McCain's statements as "ridiculous."

7:21 - Yes, I'm wearing an Obama t-shirt. But Obama is just heads and away the more presidential of the two tonight. By comparison, McCain seems like a small man.

7:23 - Obama makes the point that we can't drill our way out of our energy situation and makes the connection between our economy, our national security, and global warming.

7:26 - McCain seems annoyed that his "long record" isn't enough for him to be winning this election.

7:27 - McCain says we have to make sure that we never torture a prisoner again yet he voted against a bill that would prevent the CIA from doing so.

7:33 - Obama: "There has never been a nation on earth that has seen its economy decline and yet maintain its military superiority."

7:34 - McCain wraps up by saying that Obama doesn't have the experience to be president and compares Obama to George W. Bush in terms of stubborness! LOL

7:35 - Obama casually mentions that his father was Kenyan (which explains the name :-) and tells the story that his father wrote letter after letter so that he could come to America. Obama wants to restore our standing in the world so that tomorrow's children view us as favorably.

7:36 - McCain: Reminds us he was a POW.

TONIGHT WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT of the four debates (three presidential, one vice presidential). The first debate is normally the most watched, and that's likely especially the case this year with the current financial crisis. And Obama has simply outperformed McCain on this critical night.

Andrew Sullivan's comments here.

A McCain presidency: do you want "other" wars?

Here's a chilling five minute video that briefly covers the consequences of eight years of Bush's foreign policy... and raises the prospect of what McCain would do as president.

I don't think I'd want John McCain in the White House right now considering what's going on in Georgia.

Finally talking to Iran

Wow, the Bush administration has finally decided to talk to Iran. Technically they are saying that our envoy is heading over there to "listen" (which might actually be better than speaking, it often is).

Don't tell McCain, though, since he still thinks Obama is "naive" for his willingness to engage in dialogue.

I just hope that this is a sincere effort and not simply cover for future military action.

Troops in Iraq, Afghanistan... and Iran?

The Bush administration is considering drawing down the number of troops in Iraq... partially because of the need for additional troops in Afghanistan.

Isn't that what Obama's been talking about for months now?

Although no decision has been made, by the time President Bush leaves office on Jan. 20, at least one and as many as 3 of the 15 combat brigades now in Iraq could be withdrawn or at least scheduled for withdrawal, the officials said.

The desire to move more quickly reflects the view of many in the Pentagon who want to ease the strain on the military but also to free more troops for Afghanistan and potentially other missions.

"Other missions," however, sounds ominously like "Iran." (Desert Beacon notes that Congress is circulating a couple of potentially inflammatory resolutions that urge the President to increase the pressure on Iran: H.Con.Res 362 and S.Res. 580.)

OBAMA, MEANWHILE, is planning a trip to Iraq, and he's smartly chosen Republican Senator Chuck Hagel to accompany him.