More on the election in Afghanistan

Monitors from Europe believe that up to one out of three votes for President Karzai may have been fraudulent:

Mr. Karzai, who is vying for a second five-year term, won 54.6 percent of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff election, according to the tally released by the country’s independent election commission. His closest challenger, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, won 27.8 percent.

But the election was tainted by blatant evidence ofballot-box-stuffing and other frauds, and the country’s United Nations-backed Electoral Complaints Commission has ordered recounts and forensic examinations of ballot boxes in 10 percent of polling stations — involving at least 15 percent, and possibly a far higher proportion, of reported votes. The complaints commission, headed by a Canadian, is the ultimate arbiter of election results.

Some western officials say that if all fraudulent ballots were discarded, Mr. Karzai’s tally would drop below 50 percent, forcing him into a runoff against Mr. Abdullah. But it is unclear how many ballots might be ruled invalid in the recount, and even if Mr. Karzai were ultimately forced into a runoff, the harsh winter weather may prevent a second election from being held until April.