Borrowing a line from Nancy Reagan

Republicans, the party of "just say no." And you gotta love it when a prominent conservative says he wants our president to fail. Exactly how does that benefit America? Here's a TV ad that calls them out on their negativity.

Republicans are vilifying Las Vegas

From Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma to Governor Bobby "the Page" Jindal, the GOP is playing fast and loose with the facts to paint business trips to Vegas as frivilous. Meanwhile, $20 million in business meetings have been cancelled here in the last 30 days.

Changing of the guard

At Focus on the Family:

James Dobson, a child psychologist who became a leader of the religious right, announced yesterday he was stepping down as board chairman of Focus on the Family, the megaministry he and his wife started 32 years ago....

"He realizes he's done what he can do, and the conservative movement needs focus," said Randy Brinson, a conservative physician who founded Redeem the Vote, a group that encourages young evangelicals to vote. "There are some of us trying to show there is a middle ground. . . . Dobson couldn't be a spokesman for that middle group."

I can't say that I'll miss him. As someone who was forced to watch his videos in a public school as a kid--and who as an adult learned how he has worked against equal rights for gays and lesbians--I'm happy to see him go.

Obama's plan to get us out of Iraq

Some highlights from his speech today at Camp Lejeune where he announced plans for withdrawing 100,000 U.S. troops from Iraq by mid-2010...

Words for the people of Iraq:

Now, before I go any further, I want to take a moment to speak directly to the people of Iraq.

You are a great nation, rooted in the cradle of civilization. You are joined together by enduring accomplishments, and a history that connects you as surely as the two rivers carved into your land. In years past, you have persevered through tyranny and terror; through personal insecurity and sectarian violence. And instead of giving in to the forces of disunion, you stepped back from a descent into civil war, and showed a proud resilience that deserves respect.

Our nations have known difficult times together. But ours is a bond forged by shared bloodshed, and countless friendships among our people. We Americans have offered our most precious resource – our young men and women – to work with you to rebuild what was destroyed by despotism; to root out our common enemies; and to seek peace and prosperity for our children and grandchildren, and for yours.

There are those who will try to prevent that future for Iraq – who will insist that Iraq’s differences cannot be reconciled without more killing. They represent the forces that destroy nations and lead only to despair, and they will test our will in the months and years to come. America, too, has known these forces. We endured the pain of Civil War, and bitter divisions of region and race. But hostility and hatred are no match for justice; they offer no pathway to peace; and they must not stand between the people of Iraq and a future of reconciliation and hope.

So to the Iraqi people, let me be clear about America’s intentions. The United States pursues no claim on your territory or your resources. We respect your sovereignty and the tremendous sacrifices you have made for your country. We seek a full transition to Iraqi responsibility for the security of your country. And going forward, we can build a lasting relationship founded upon mutual interests and mutual respect as Iraq takes its rightful place in the community of nations.

And to U.S. troops:

Finally, I want to be very clear that my strategy for ending the war in Iraq does not end with military plans or diplomatic agendas – it endures through our commitment to uphold our sacred trust with every man and woman who has served in Iraq.

You make up a fraction of the American population, but in an age when so many people and institutions have acted irresponsibly, you did the opposite – you volunteered to bear the heaviest burden. And for you and for your families, the war does not end when you come home. It lives on in memories of your fellow soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines who gave their lives. It endures in the wound that is slow to heal, the disability that isn’t going away, the dream that wakes you at night, or the stiffening in your spine when a car backfires down the street.

You and your families have done your duty – now a grateful nation must do ours. That is why I am increasing the number of soldiers and Marines, so that we lessen the burden on those who are serving. And that is why I have committed to expanding our system of veterans health care to serve more patients, and to provide better care in more places. We will continue building new wounded warrior facilities across America, and invest in new ways of identifying and treating the signature wounds of this war: Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Traumatic Brain Injury, as well as other combat injuries.

We also know that service does not end with the person wearing the uniform. In her visits with military families across the country, my wife Michelle has learned firsthand about the unique burden that your families endure every day. I want you to know this: military families are a top priority for Michelle and me, and they will be a top priority for my administration. We’ll raise military pay, and continue providing quality child-care, job-training for spouses, and expanded counseling and outreach to families that have known the separation and stress of war. We will also heed the lesson of history – that those who fight in battle can form the backbone of our middle class – by implementing a 21st century GI Bill to help our veterans live their dreams.

(Video link)

Paul Krugman on Obama's budget

Krugman gives Obama's budget a thumbs up for its priorities and clarity:

Many will ask whether Mr. Obama can actually pull off the deficit reduction he promises. Can he actually reduce the red ink from $1.75 trillion this year to less than a third as much in 2013? Yes, he can.

Right now the deficit is huge thanks to temporary factors (at least we hope they’re temporary): a severe economic slump is depressing revenues and large sums have to be allocated both to fiscal stimulus and to financial rescues.

But if and when the crisis passes, the budget picture should improve dramatically. Bear in mind that from 2005 to 2007, that is, in the three years before the crisis, the federal deficit averaged only $243 billion a year. Now, during those years, revenues were inflated, to some degree, by the housing bubble. But it’s also true that we were spending more than $100 billion a year in Iraq.

So if Mr. Obama gets us out of Iraq (without bogging us down in an equally expensive Afghan quagmire) and manages to engineer a solid economic recovery — two big ifs, to be sure — getting the deficit down to around $500 billion by 2013 shouldn’t be at all difficult.

But won’t the deficit be swollen by interest on the debt run-up over the next few years? Not as much as you might think. Interest rates on long-term government debt are less than 4 percent, so even a trillion dollars of additional debt adds less than $40 billion a year to future deficits. And those interest costs are fully reflected in the budget documents.

Our legislative leaders are twittering

Seems a bit juvenile to me. More from First Read.

The shrinking GDP

In the fourth quarter of 2008, the gross domestic product shrank at almost a 7% annual rate, much more than had previously been estimated:

The country’s gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate 6.2 percent in the last quarter of 2008, the steepest decline since the 1982 recession. Economists are expecting a similar drop in the first quarter of 2009.

“What a ghastly report,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “This will almost certainly be the longest postwar recession, and now potentially the deepest one as well.”

With the exception of government spending, every major component of the economy shrank. [emphasis added]

G.D.P., a measure of the country’s total output of goods and services, was previously estimated to have fallen 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. While economists and Wall Street analysts had been skeptical of that original figure, they had expected a revision closer to a 5.4 percent decline. The economy shrank 0.5 percent in the previous quarter.

So yeah, Bobby Jindal, let's just stop government spending, too. Wonder how much worse the number would have been if we'd done that?

Nevada's budget crisis threatens higher education

Governor Jim Gibbons' current budget proposal would gut higher education in Nevada:

Gibbons has left us with the false choice of avoiding severe layoffs or making serious budget cuts. Incapable of vision or leading the state in this time of economic crisis, Gibbons instead chooses a political stunt over a sound public policy. We would decry his budget at length if we thought it actually stood any chance of approval. What kind of leader supports killing his state’s higher education system and bankrupting K-12 of its most valuable resource – its teachers.

There is no way Nevada’s higher education system can exist if the type of cuts Gibbons proposed were enacted. There is no way Nevada’s school children could ever improve achievement as the lowest-in-the-nation funding is slashed again. The governor’s State of the State showed him to be in altered states. He defended his 50 percent cut to our universities by suggesting he values education more because it is a larger percentage of the state’s budget. Well, we learned enough in math to know that two percent of nothing is still nothing.

You can weigh in against his disastrous proposals by signing a petition here.

Obama talks about his budget outline

(Video link)

John McCain approves...

Of Obama's plan to bring home from Iraq 100,000 troops over the next 19 months:

The reaction to the Iraq drawdown plan indicated an emerging consensus in the United States that it is time to begin getting out. While some leading Congressional Democrats grumbled about the size of the residual force, the drawdown largely won support across party lines, including from leading Republicans like Senator John McCain of Arizona, who lost year’s election to Mr. Obama after a fierce debate over Iraq.

Speaking on the Senate floor on Friday before the president’s speech, Mr. McCain credited the opportunity to pull troops out to the surge that Mr. Bush ordered two years ago with his support. But he cautioned that Iraq remains fragile, urging Mr. Obama to remain flexible and listen to military commanders.

“With these factors in mind, I believe the president’s withdrawal plan is a reasonable one,” Mr. McCain said. “Given the gains in Iraq and the requirements to send additional troops to Afghanistan, together with the significant number of troops that will remain in Iraq and the president’s willingness to reassess based on conditions on the ground, I am cautiously optimistic that the plan as laid out by the president can lead to success.”

An admonition

Bobby Jindal versus the volcano

Jindal's getting a ton of flack for making fun of money for "volcano monitoring" in the stimulus package that just passed.

He didn't win any friends in Alaska (which has four active volcanos near Anchorage), and both of the state's Senators have responded strongly to his comments.

For someone whose state just suffered a major natural disaster (Katrina) and has received billions of dollars in federal aid, Jindal's comments were pretty tone deaf.

Soft toilet paper's impact on the environment

Getting Americans to switch to recycled toilet paper sounds like a hard sell to me, no pun intended. :-)

But the New York Times has an article about the impact of soft toilet paper on the environment, and Greenpeace has a downloadable tp shopping guide (here's the Canadian version).

Obama's budget

I just wrote my Republican Senator John Ensign to urge him to support Obama's proposed budget. It's time to make some needed and overdue investments in energy, healthcare, and education.

You can find detailed information about Obama's budget at the Office of Managent and Budget's website. Peter Orszag, the OMB's director, has posted his first blog post:

This Budget puts us back on a road toward economic and fiscal health by:

Being honest. If this Budget used the gimmicks employed in recent budgets, it would show a bottom line that would appear about $2.7 trillion better over ten years. For example, these other budgets didn’t include the likely cost of natural disasters or the cost of permanently continuing the temporary patch that prevents millions of Americans from paying the Alternative Minimum Tax. Using gimmicks may make good politics temporarily, but it doesn’t help move the nation forward.

Cutting the deficit in half by the end of the President’s first term. We inherited a deficit of $1.3 trillion or 9% of GDP in fiscal 2009. Even though we increase the 2009 deficit to give the economy a desperately needed jolt, over subsequent years we reduce the deficit by more than half by 2013, the end of the president’s first term: to $533 billion or 3.0% of GDP. As I mentioned above, we inherited a path of projected deficits adding up to $9 trillion over the next ten years – and our policy proposals will reduce those projected deficits by more than $2 trillion.

Reforming health care. At the President’s direction, we have begun the process of doing a line-by-line review of the Budget. One of the lines we’ve started with is among the most important to the budget and to many other aspects of our economy: health care.

As I have long said, health care is the key to our nation’s fiscal future – and there are substantial efficiency improvements that are possible to deliver better results at lower costs in the health system.... This proposal is a starting point, not an ending point, for health reform as additional resources will be needed to improve and expand health care for all Americans.

Making key investments. The Budget also makes key investments in education, energy, and infrastructure. It invests in early childhood education;makes Pell Grants for college into a reliable source of support for students and indexes their value above the ordinary rate of inflation so as to better keep up with the rapidly rising cost of college tuition; and helps at-risk students complete college. The Budget also lays down a comprehensive approach to transform our energy supply and slow global climate change. And it makes infrastructure investments that will provide our nation a foundation for long-term economic growth.

Good governance is a two-way street. Learn about the budget. Read the White House and OMB blogs. And contact your own members of Congress here: Senate and House.

News on Yucca Mountain and America's energy supply

From Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's office:

Today, President Obama, with help from Senator Reid, released an outline for the 2010 federal budget, which will drastically scale back funding for ongoing efforts to license the dump.

“President Obama yesterday took a critical first step toward fulfilling his promise to end the Yucca Mountain project, and I could not be happier for the people of Nevada,” Reid said. “Make no mistake: this represents our most significant victory to date in our battle to protect Nevada from becoming the country’s toxic wasteland. I have worked for more than two decades with help from our state’s leaders and thousands of Nevadans to stop Yucca Mountain. President Obama recognizes that the proposed dump threatens the health and safety of Nevadans, and millions of Americans. His commitment to stop this terrible project could not be clearer.”

Pres. Obama’s budget also reveals plans to consider alternatives to the dump. The outline says the administration will devise “a new strategy toward nuclear waste disposal,” something long called for by Nevadans.

While Senator Reid has been working with Pres. Obama to kill the Yucca Mountain dump, he also secured $100 million for Nevada in an omnibus bill the Senate will consider next week. The bill includes $18.7 million for roads and transportation, nearly $15 million for energy projects, $5.4 million for schools and $4.6 million for health care – funds that are badly needed in Nevada during this budget crisis.

Meanwhile, Reid has continued his crusade to make Nevada a renewable energy pioneer. This week, Reid announced he would be presenting a major energy transmission bill in the Senate that would make it easier to carry renewable energy from often remote locations to urban centers in need of power.

(Video link)

The August 2008 meeting that Reid mentions in the video was the National Clean Energy Summit.

REID WAS ALSO ON KNPR's State of Nevada program today talking about Yucca Mountain and Nevada's share of the economic stimulus package.

The latest on global warming from a Stanford researcher

Chris Field, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, believes the latest climate predictions may be understimating the problem. Here are three reasons why:

1. Coal

   "We now have data showing that from 2000 to 2007, greenhouse gas emissions increased far more rapidly than we expected, primarily because developing countries, like China and India, saw a huge upsurge in electric power generation, almost all of it based on coal," Field said.
   
   This trend is likely to continue, he added, if more developing countries turn to coal and other carbon-intensive fuels to meet their energy needs. "If we're going to continue re-carbonizing the energy system, we're going to have big CO2 emissions in the future," he said. "As a result, the impacts of climate change will probably be more serious and diverse than those described in the fourth assessment."

2. Tropical forests

   "Tropical forests are essentially non-flammable," Field said. "You couldn't get a fire to burn there if you tried. But if they dry out just a little bit, the result can be very large and destructive wildfires."
   
   According to several recent climate models, loss of tropical forests to wildfires, deforestation and other causes could increase atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from 10 to 100 parts per million by the end of the century. This would be a significant increase, given that the total concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is currently about 380 parts per million, the highest in 650,000 years.
   
   "It is increasingly clear that as you produce a warmer world, lots of forested areas that had been acting as carbon sinks could be converted to carbon sources," Field said.

3. Arctic tundra

   "The new estimate of the total amount of carbon that's frozen in permafrost soils is on the order of 1,000 billion tons," he said. "By comparison, the total amount of CO2 that's been released in fossil fuel combustion since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is around 350 billion tons. So the amount of carbon that's stored in these frozen soils is truly vast."
   
   Much of the carbon is locked up in frozen plants that were buried under very cold conditions and have remained in deep freeze for 25,000 to 50,000 years, he added. "We know that the Arctic is warming faster than anyplace else," he said. "And there is clear evidence that these frozen plants are very susceptible to decomposition when the tundra thaws. So melting of permafrost is poised to be an even stronger foot on the accelerator pedal of atmospheric CO2, with every increment of warming causing an increment of permafrost-melting that shoots an increment of CO2 into the atmosphere, which in turn increases warming.

How the financial industry works

Jack sent me this informative interview on why we got screwed! :-)

(Video link)

Oh, my

I just watched Bobby Jindal crash and burn giving the Republican response to Obama's address to Congress. If Jindal and Sarah Palin are the best that the GOP has to offer, they truly are a party in decline.

(Video link)

Economic charts for the day

As seen on The Daily Dish.

Comparing the current bear market to previous bear markets (The Big Picture):

Housing prices for Los Angeles, Cleveland, New York City, and Denver over the last 22 years (Calculated Risk):

And a similar graph but for more cities and for just the last nine years (Seeking Alpha):

"We will rebuild"

Last night I was in Primm at a Blondie concert. Talk about a flashback to the 1970s and 80s!

And tonight after a busy day, I finally had a chance to sit down and watch the address that President Obama made to Congress and the nation yesterday.

In many ways, the last eight years have felt to me like a strange sort of limbo. Right now I feel , at last, that the 21st century has finally begun.

If anyone had any doubts that Obama was unready to lead the nation, or any doubts about America's ability to renew itself and lead the world once more, I can't help but think that they must now be looking at our president and at this country a little differently.

Obama explained our financial crisis and why the economic stimulus plan was necessary (as well as some of the highlights of what it will do for the country). But even in this time of crisis, he seized the moment to call for investments in the critical areas that will determine our future: energy, healthcare, education, and reducing the federal budget deficit. He called on Americans and their representatives in Washington to step up to a new level of responsibility. And somehow--despite the partisan divide in Washington--he brought all of Congress to its Democratic and Republican feet 34 times.

If you haven't watched the speech, you can watch highlights here or the full address here (both videos are also below). Here is the transcript.

A couple of passages that particularly moved me:

But we know that our schools don’t just need more resources. They need more reform. That is why this budget creates new incentives for teacher performance; pathways for advancement, and rewards for success. We’ll invest in innovative programs that are already helping schools meet high standards and close achievement gaps. And we will expand our commitment to charter schools.

It is our responsibility as lawmakers and educators to make this system work. But it is the responsibility of every citizen to participate in it. And so tonight, I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get more than a high school diploma. And dropping out of high school is no longer an option. It’s not just quitting on yourself, it’s quitting on your country – and this country needs and values the talents of every American. [my emphasis] That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world....

These education policies will open the doors of opportunity for our children. But it is up to us to ensure they walk through them. In the end, there is no program or policy that can substitute for a mother or father who will attend those parent/teacher conferences, or help with homework after dinner, or turn off the TV, put away the video games, and read to their child. I speak to you not just as a President, but as a father when I say that responsibility for our children's education must begin at home.

And:

As we meet here tonight, our men and women in uniform stand watch abroad and more are readying to deploy. To each and every one of them, and to the families who bear the quiet burden of their absence, Americans are united in sending one message: we honor your service, we are inspired by your sacrifice, and you have our unyielding support. To relieve the strain on our forces, my budget increases the number of our soldiers and Marines. And to keep our sacred trust with those who serve, we will raise their pay, and give our veterans the expanded health care and benefits that they have earned.

To overcome extremism, we must also be vigilant in upholding the values our troops defend – because there is no force in the world more powerful than the example of America. That is why I have ordered the closing of the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, and will seek swift and certain justice for captured terrorists – because living our values doesn’t make us weaker, it makes us safer and it makes us stronger. And that is why I can stand here tonight and say without exception or equivocation that the United States of America does not torture.

In words and deeds, we are showing the world that a new era of engagement has begun. For we know that America cannot meet the threats of this century alone, but the world cannot meet them without America. We cannot shun the negotiating table, nor ignore the foes or forces that could do us harm. We are instead called to move forward with the sense of confidence and candor that serious times demand.

The highlights of the address:

And the full speech:

Debbie Harry

A really poor quality photo of Debbie Harry toward the end of Blondie's awesome concert at Buffalo Bill's in Primm last night.

Me and Deborah Harry's shoe!

Illegible

But it says "BLONDIE." And we're waiting them to start the concert!

Franch dressing is available...

At Buffalo Bill's in Primm, Nevada.

Bobby Jindal, rising star?

After watching him on last Sunday's Meet the Press, I just don't see it.

(Video link)

Irresponsible borrowing

I've said something like this before, but it's important enough that it's still being re-stated by others. Here's what Matthew Yglesias has to say about those "irresponsible borrowers" that some are now saying should be left high and dry as the housing crisis continues:

When someone applies for a mortgage, there are two parties to the transaction. On one side of it is a teacher or a blogger or an electrician or a lawyer or a nurse or a guy who manages a Home Depot. On the side is a guy who, for a living, as a professional, works in the “deciding on what terms to offer people mortgages” business who works, for a living, at a financial services business. Businesses like that got in the habit of making loans with little regard to actual prospects for long-term payment on the theory that since house prices were rising, the borrower could always sell or refinance. That, to repeat, wasn’t the judgment of electricians and store managers; it was the judgment of people who were professional mortgage-offerers.

Keep in mind that the lender isn't simply selling a product like a double bacon cheeseburger or a Snuggie. It's a lot easier in those cases to argue that the buyer is fully responsible for their ill-advised choice.

But in the case of a mortgage, the lender is actually creating a relationship between the buyer and whomever it is that ultimately owns the loan. The lenders who lavished money on people who aren't good credit risks are the real idiots in this scenario. I mean, how smart is it to offer relaxed credit terms to people with bad enough credit to not qualify for your regular loan products? Or to offer people more money than the old rules said that they could pay back?

Getting in the wayback machine

One year ago, Obama responded to Bush's State of the Union address:

(Video link)

Funny, he sounds more stern than I remember. But he also is sounds a whole lot like the guy who now occupies the Oval Office. So far, we have the president that Obama promised to be.

More on the Oscars

Everything that Hendrik says (except the part about the commercials)... I agree.

Obama has a date with America: Tuesday, February 24th, 9pm EST

Tune in.

The key, I think, is food

A new study finds that calcium may reduce the risk of a variety of cancers, but a key point:

The benefits were mostly associated with foods high in calcium, rather than calcium tablets.

Throw the bums out

I was talking to my Dad earlier tonight, expressing my sense that maybe temporarily nationalizing insolvent banks may be in the best interests of the country, and said that the current management of those banks should be fired. Now!

They had a big role in getting us into this mess. Time for them to get out of the way because I've lost trust in them. Apparently a lot of Americans agree:

Thirty percent of those questioned said they're confident Wall Street will make the right decisions to help the country overcome the current recession. Slightly fewer -- 28 percent -- said they had such confidence in bankers and financial executives. And 26 percent said they're confident that auto executives will make the right economic decisions.

But 53 percent of those questioned said they have confidence in Republicans in Congress making the right calls regarding the economy. About 66 percent said they have confidence Democrats, who control Congress, will make the right economic decisions. And 75 percent said they think President Barack Obama will make the right moves when it comes dealing with the recession.

"You know times are tough when Republicans have more confidence in a Democratic president than they do in bankers or Wall Street investors, but that's what the poll is showing now," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Among Republicans, 37 percent say they are confident in Obama's ability to make the right economic decisions, but only 31 percent of Republicans feel that way about Wall Street."

After all, if I can recognize a scam when I see one, how is that Citigroup was stupid enough to be duped by a Nigerian who got them to wire him $27 million?!?!

Stimulus money for green jobs in Nevada

State Senate Majority Leader Steve Horsford has introduced the Green Jobs Initiative to invest some of the federal economic stimulus money in creating green job training centers here in Nevada. People trained in the program would then be put to work weatherizing homes and other energy-related projects.

Obama addresses the nation's governors

Speaking at the National Governor's Association, Obama announced that Vice President Biden will be overseeing economic recovery issues for the White House and that Earl Delaney will serve as Chair of the Recovery Act Transparency and Accountability Board.

Also watch at the 8 min 30 sec mark where Obama refutes Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal's rationale for "turning down" federal money.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

(Video link)

He also plugged Recovery.gov again as the place for Americans to track where the government is spending the $787 billion stimulus plan.

Memo to the GOP: Americans aren't buying it

Apparently the vast majority of Americans believe that Congressional Republicans opposed the economic stimulus package for political reasons:

Sixty-three percent said Republicans opposed the economic stimulus package for political reasons rather than policy concerns.

Eighty percent of Americans think Republicans should work in a bipartisan way rather than holding fast to their policies, according to the poll.

It's Halloween in February

Meaning I'm scared. I thought things were bad with the economy and our creaking financial system last fall before the election, but I began to feel a little better in the months since.

But reading the New York Times today has me mighty worried:

• U.S. companies continue to wither on the vine, with the prospect of more bailout billions growing by the day. Citigroup needs so much money that the U.S. may soon own 40% of it.
• Europe has its own subprime crisis: it's called "Eastern Europe." Apparently European (and U.S.) banks let billions to Poland, Hungary, and neighboring countries when times were flush. Now their currencies have fallen 20, 30, or 40% against the euro, making re-payment extremely difficult.
• Paul Krugman continues to argue for temporarily nationalizing U.S. banks that become insolvent, and I'm beginning to think he may be right.

And all of this on a day when the Dow fell back to where it was in 1997. It's now down 50% since it's peak 16 months ago.

Earlier today I watched Obama talk about our longer term financial issues with legislators from both parties as well as other invited experts, and I had a lot of faith that he may have what it takes to actually break the logjam that's come to characterize Washington. I'm less sure about the short term... we've got some major challenges, and the next five (ten?) years may be really difficult ones for America.

Here's the full transcript of today's post-summit Q&A, including this exchange between Senator McCain and President Obama:

"We all know how large the defense budget is," Sen. McCain said. "We all know that the cost overruns -- your helicopter is now going to cost as much as Air Force One. I don't think that there's any more graphic demonstration of how good ideas have cost taxpayers an enormous amount of money...[W]e have to make some tough decisions -- you, Mr. President, have to make some tough decisions about not only what we procure, but how we procure it."

"The helicopter I have now seems perfectly adequate to me. Of course, I've never and a helicopter before -- maybe I've been deprived and I didn't know it," the President joked, before continuing with a more serious response. "But I think it is an example of the procurement process gone amuck. And we're going to have to fix it....One of the promising things is I think Secretary Gates shares our concern and he recognizes that simply adding more and more does not necessarily mean better and better, or safer and more secure."

(Video link)

One thing I appreciated about Obama today was how at ease he looked and sounded interacting with the decision makers gathered at the White House, both those who agree with him on most issues and those who don't.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

(Video link)

Still... I'm uneasy. :-/

Wow: Obama's style of governing

Obama held a White House summit today with lawmakers from both parties--and independent experts--to discuss longer term budget deficit issues (including healthcare, entitlements, defense). And while I'm taking a break from studying to make some lunch, I turned on the TV in the middle of a Q&A session between Obama and lawmakers about the challenges and opportunies that each of the various subgroups identified.

I have to say I am just amazed by how quickly Obama has jumped on this and the fact that this give-and-take is being shared with the public. It is renewing my hope that we might just be able to tackle some of the long term problems that for so long have seemed intractable!

I think we may have just elected one of the best presidents ever. Obama seems totally comfortable in the role of working with his Congressional counterparts and the American people to bring about real change. This is leadership in action.

One quote with respect to Congressional politics: "The majority needs to be inclusive. On the other hand, the minority needs to be constructive." [corrected]

I am sure this session will end up on YouTube... look for it!

Speaking against Nevada's higher education budget cuts

Following on a big rally at UNLV last month, students will be traveling to Carson City to protest the severe budget cuts that Governor Jim Gibbons supports:

On February 25-27, eight students (two from each of Southern Nevada’s student leadership institutions, including both undergraduate and graduate student body leaders) will travel to Carson City to lobby on behalf of Nevada’s students.

On Wednesday evening, they will attend a legislative dinner and meet with state leaders that evening as well as Thursday afternoon to discuss student interests and needs in relation to budget cuts.

This event is being co-hosted and organized by the student governments of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV), College of Southern Nevada (CSN), and Nevada State College (NSC).

Seriously, how is this state ever going to become something more than a place driven by gambling and tourism if we don't invest in the education of our citizens?

More information on how Nevada's higher education institutions are responding to the cuts here; you can voice your opinion with our sorry excuse for a governor here.

Two Oscar acceptance speeches

From the screenwriter for Milk, Dustin Lance Black:

(Video link)

And from Sean Penn who played Harvey Milk:

(Video link)

When I lived in Portland I lived across the hallway from Milk's director, Gus Van Sant. I am so happy for his success!

What? Bobby, you make no sense

I just listened to Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal talking about the stimulus plan that was just passed. He was saying that he didn't see how buying new cars for the government was going to stimulate the economy.

Does he really not see the connection between buying cars and helping Detroit and the American workers who make cars in many states???

What a night

I think I loved tonight's Oscars presentation better than any other I've seen. I was surrounded by great people and really liked the new intimate format with previous winners talking to the nominees one-on-one. Bravo!

Conservatives are now invoking Jesus in their opposition to the stimulus plan

David Shuster rips their tactic apart on MSNBC's Hypocrisy Watch:

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

(Video link)

Harvey Milk's last love

Here's a story I've never heard about Harvey Milk, as told by Armistead Maupin in the foreward of a new pictorial history (Milk: A Pictorial History of Harvey Milk). Apparently Harvey met and fell for young Steve Beery in the weeks before his assassination.

Maupin befriended the young man and they were friends for 15 years until Beery's early death due to AIDS.

Maupin has this to say in the wake of the passage of proposition 8 in California:

Maybe that’s why we’re having to learn to kick ass all over again. The generation that knew nothing of Harvey Milk before seeing the movie that bears his name was jolted into a harsh new reality when California voters decided to strip gay people of their right to marry. To us old-timers the argument for Proposition 8 was a blast from the past, a throwback to the evil theocratic Save-the-Children bullshit that Anita Bryant was spewing over thirty years ago. Why, then, was our response so maddeningly weak-kneed and closeted? Why didn’t you see images of gay people in any of our ads—or even the word “gay,” for that matter? Are we that ashamed of ourselves?

The answer is no, thankfully; most of us aren’t. And a growing number of young people have lost patience with the black-tie silent-auction-A-gay complacency of the organizations that claim to be fighting for our rights but don’t want to ruffle feathers. These new kids are friending each other on Facebook (whatever that means) and taking to the streets on their own. My husband and I met a few of them when we picketed the Mormon temple in Oakland last month. They have love in their eyes and fire in their bellies and a commitment to finish this fight once and for all.

Harvey would have loved them.

People sure can work themselves up in a lather

Here's Alan Keyes calling Obama a "radical Communist" who is going to "destroy this country." Really!

He goes on to say that "the United States of America is going to cease to exist" if we don't stop Obama.

(Video link)

And Hendrik Hertzberg notes that some on the right are now calling Obama a fascist.

Talk about some nut jobs!

Fashion week blues

I wonder what Miranda Priestly would say about the fashion industry's woes?

Obama and the U.S. deficit

President Obama has banned the sort of budget gimmicks that Bush used to mask the true size of the budget deficit... so expect the deficit to rise not only because of government spending to boost the economy but also because the government numbers will now more accurately reflect what the government is actually spending.

Still, he's already working on plans for cutting the deficit significantly (the goal is by two-thirds by the end of his term).

More on the California drought

On top of the recession, California's Central Valley is suffering from drought. Farmers aren't getting enough water to grow their usual crops (tomatoes, grapes, lettuce, onions, etc.) and in some cases aren't growing anything at all. That'll mean higher prices for the rest of us.

Clinton focuses on climate change, not human rights, in China

Wrapping up her tour of Asia with a visit to China:

The Obama administration hopes to make climate change the centerpiece of a broader, more vigorous engagement with China. For Mrs. Clinton, the two-day stop in Beijing at the end of a weeklong Asian tour, represents an effort to put her own stamp on a relationship that was dominated by the Treasury Department in the latter years of the Bush administration.

“The opportunities for us to work together are unmatched anywhere in the world,” Mrs. Clinton declared, on a hectic day filled with meetings with President Hu Jintao and other top Chinese officials.

Human rights groups have criticized Mrs. Clinton for soft-pedaling Tibet and other issues during her first visit as secretary of state. She said she did not want these disputes to interfere with critical challenges like climate change, the global economic crisis and security concerns.

It was a stark contrast to 1995, when Mrs. Clinton, then first lady, gave a speech in Beijing at a United Nations conference, in which she catalogued abuses against women and concluded by saying that “human rights are women’s rights, and women’s rights are human rights.”

Speaking after a meeting with the foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, Mrs. Clinton said she had raised the Tibet issue and other concerns. But she argued that the work of advocacy groups and people in civil society in this area was “at least as important” as that of government officials.

We're hardly in a position to dictate anything to China right now, even assuming that "dictating" was a good idea. It's clear to me that people around the world are likely to suffer in the short term from the economic crisis and in the long term from climate change. Drawing China into partnerships with the rest of the world to address both problems is probably the best way to put them on the path of further democratization.

Jamie Lee Curtis writes about our collective denial

The full post is on Huffington:

Are we too so drugged as to think that the idea of Corporate greed and avarice and the lies and misdeeds are a new thing? Madoff's Ponzi worked (longer than most) but it worked because people didn't ask questions, they just really liked the returns. Is this new? Did the banks and the mortgage lenders and Feds really just figure out that there was a problem. We are all to blame. We are addicted to the dope of credit and each plastic card purchase sets off the phenomenon of craving for more. Then advertisers and marketers (lobbyists in better suits) and the media tell us we need it and the banks and the credit companies tell us we can have it and boom -- we are all in over our heads.

Uh, oh: foreigners stop buying

American investments are becoming less attractive to foreigners (the people who've been propping up our profligate spending and overall economy for the past decade or so).

The government said this week that net purchases of those [long term] securities fell to $412.5 billion in 2008, less than half the 2007 level and the lowest annual total since 1999, when the federal government was running a budget surplus.

And with the Federal Reserve printing money like there's no tomorrow, we're dependent on foreign investment to finance the deficit spending that will hopefully get our economy moving again.

And read this prescient 2000 article on the topic from the World Socialist Web Site.

Hmm.

Water in the West

Last night Jim and I attended a lecture on "Water in the West" at UNLV. Stanford historian David M. Kennedy talked about two key differences that have impacted the development of the western half of the United States.

The first is climate: to the east of the 100th meridian, America is moist, averaging over 30" of rainfall a year. To the west of the 100th, fewer than 20" of precipitation is recorded (that's an average which covers the extremes of the Southwestern desert and the northwestern coastal forests).

The second is time: the east was largely settled during the period from 1770 to 1870 when the federal government was simply focused on distributing the lands it owned. The west was settled during a period (1870-1973) when the government was attempting to more scientifically develop the lands under its jurisdiction. Almost all of the large hydroelectric and water project dams are in the West, for example. Without those projects--as well as federal investments in railroads and highways--the West would not have flourished as it has.

Since passage of the Endangered Species Act in 1973, the historical western competition for water rights between cities and agriculture has become a three-way struggle, with the environment itself given legal standing. And with the onset of climate change, the very models that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers used when designing the West's dams, reservoirs, and water distribution systems are being challenged by declining precipitation and earlier snow melts.

Some interesting facts from the lecture:

• If current trends continue, by approximately 2040 the U.S. will be a majority western nation with more than half of the population in the western states.
• Already 1/3 of GDP and more than 1/2 of American exports to Asia come from the western states.
• Around 19% of the electricity used in California is used to move water, mostly from the wetter north to the dryer south.
• Desalination is unlikely to solve the West's water problem: it requires a lot of energy, would mostly only benefit the coast, and produces brine as a by-product which can't simply be dumped back in the ocean without affecting coastal aquatic habitats.
• Last year a study was published warning that there is a 50% chance that Lake Mead (the reservoir behind Hoover Dam) will be dry by 2021. The lake is a key source of water for Las Vegas, Arizona, and much of Southern California.

Professor Kennedy also flashed a frightening picture depicting one human impact on the West's landscape. Our unquenchable thirst for water, the vast majority of which goes to agriculture, has caused land in the West to subside... in some places to a shocking degree. Check out this U.S. Geological Service photograph which shows how far the ground has sunk in one location of the San Joaquin Valley between 1925 and 1977:

As I sat through the lecture, I wondered if the western population shift might provide the necessary political will to solve the West's water problems. The eastern U.S., especially the Great Lakes Region, has a lot of water to spare. The West has a big need for water, grows a lot of produce for the rest of the country (think California), and has vast potential for clean energy (and I just learned that the BLM reversed last year's decision to put a two year moratorium on new solar projects in Nevada, though the sinking economy is still an obstacle). Maybe with enough political power concentrated in the West some sort of agreement could be reached? But then I remembered the Senate: while the West's power will grow in the House of Representatives, the eleven states of the arid West will still have only 22 of 100 Senators.

(Kennedy was also interviewed on KNPR's "State of Nevada" yesterday.)

AND TO BOOKEND THE LECTURE, on my way home from the lecture I heard a report on NPR that federal water managers are stopping delivery of water to California farms, at least temporarily, due to drought conditions in the state.

Quick climate change note

The U.S. and China together account for 40% of the world's carbon dioxide emissions.

A short market report

Gold is over $1000 an ounce while Citigroup closed at $1.95.

Quote for the day

Asked why she had been so blunt with North Korea's Kim Jong Il, Secretary of State Clinton said:

I don’t think it's a forbidden subject to talk about succession in the Hermit Kingdom. ...To worry about something that is so self-evident is an impediment to clear thinking.

Bravo!

More on Hillary's direct and personal style here.

The stimulus and health care

The New England Journal of Medicine comments on the impact of the stimulus package on healthcare:

By launching broad federal initiatives for biomedical and comparative effectiveness research, the adoption of health information technology, and the protection of the privacy and security of medical records, the stimulus law should have major and immediate effects. It directs to health care about $150 billion in new funds (see table), most of which will be spent within 2 years. The spending includes $87 billion for Medicaid, $24.7 billion to subsidize private health insurance for people who lose or have lost their jobs, $19.2 billion for health information technology, and $10 billion for the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The new NIH funding, equivalent to a third of the institutes' $29.5 billion annual budget, was added at the insistence of Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA), a strong supporter of the agency. Specter, who has survived a brain tumor and two episodes of Hodgkin's disease, was one of the three Republicans in Congress who voted for the legislation.

The act also provides $650 million to support prevention and wellness activities targeting obesity, smoking, and other risk factors for chronic diseases and $500 million for health professions training programs, including $300 million to revitalize the National Health Service Corps (NHSC). The NHSC provides loan repayment, salary support, and scholarships for physicians and other providers who practice in underserved areas. Under the Bush administration, its budget decreased to about $125 million per year, and it could award only 84 scholarships in fiscal 2008, less than 1 per medical school. The package increases by 50% the overall support for the NHSC and other workforce programs run by the Health Resources and Services Administration.

On the medical research front, comparative effectiveness studies that directly compare the risks and benefits of different treatments for a particular condition are essential for improving practice and slowing cost escalation. Such studies, however, have been controversial; the pharmaceutical and medical device industries may not fund them, and some are concerned that the government or insurers may use the results to mandate specific approaches to treatment or to deny coverage.

Banking 101

I thought this commentary from Paul McCulley at Pimco was really helpful in understanding how modern banking works, the ways in which even private banks depend on the government in order to do business, and the tools the government has at its disposal to tackle the current financial crisis facing America.

Will banks be nationalized? McCulley points out that in some sense they already are since they rely on government safety nets to generate high profits.

Pet Shop Boys, Brandon Flowers, and Lady Gaga

I've always loved the Pet Shop Boys, I have a crush on Brandon Flowers (who appears at the 6 min 29 sec mark), and I can tolerate Lady Gaga. :) So here you go:

(Video link)

Being mindful of the axis of upheaval

A year or so ago I read The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West. And as I started to read "The Axis of Upheaval," a short article in Foreign Policy magazine about the state of the world today, I was reminded of the book.

No wonder: both the book and the article, as it turns out, were written by Niall Ferguson.

Ferguson sums up the book in his article as follows:

For more than a decade, I pondered the question of why the 20th century was characterized by so much brutal upheaval. I pored over primary and secondary literature. I wrote more than 800 pages on the subject. And ultimately I concluded, in The War of the World, that three factors made the location and timing of lethal organized violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first factor was ethnic disintegration: Violence was worst in areas of mounting ethnic tension. The second factor was economic volatility: The greater the magnitude of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was. And the third factor was empires in decline: When structures of imperial rule crumbled, battles for political power were most bloody.

Given the state of the world economy today, Ferguson is concerned about the future:

In at least one of the world’s regions—the greater Middle East—two of these three factors have been present for some time: Ethnic conflict has been rife there for decades, and following the difficulties and disappointments in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States already seems likely to begin winding down its quasi-imperial presence in the region. It likely still will.

Now the third variable, economic volatility, has returned with a vengeance. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “Great Moderation”—the supposed decline of economic volatility that he hailed in a 2004 lecture—has been obliterated by a financial chain reaction, beginning in the U.S. subprime mortgage market, spreading through the banking system, reaching into the “shadow” system of credit based on securitization, and now triggering collapses in asset prices and economic activity around the world.

After nearly a decade of unprecedented growth, the global economy will almost certainly sputter along in 2009, though probably not as much as it did in the early 1930s, because governments worldwide are frantically trying to repress this new depression. But no matter how low interest rates go or how high deficits rise, there will be a substantial increase in unemployment in most economies this year and a painful decline in incomes. Such economic pain nearly always has geopolitical consequences. Indeed, we can already see the first symptoms of the coming upheaval.

And this bleak assessment:

The problem is that, as in the 1930s, most countries are looking inward, grappling with the domestic consequences of the economic crisis and paying little attention to the wider world crisis. This is true even of the United States, which is now so preoccupied with its own economic problems that countering global upheaval looks like an expensive luxury. With the U.S. rate of GDP growth set to contract between 2 and 3 percentage points this year, and with the official unemployment rate likely to approach 10 percent, all attention in Washington will remain focused on a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package. Caution has been thrown to the wind by both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The projected deficit for 2009 is already soaring above the trillion-dollar mark, more than 8 percent of GDP. Few commentators are asking what all this means for U.S. foreign policy.

The answer is obvious: The resources available for policing the world are certain to be reduced for the foreseeable future....

Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.

FURTHER SOUNDING THE ALARM is news that Iran has a third more enriched uranium than had previously believed. They have enough, in fact, to build their first bomb if that's what they are actually up to, though they'd need to refine the material they have further before doing so.

But on the positive side, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is abroad setting a new tone for U.S. foreign relations:

"My trip here today is to hear your views, because I believe strongly that we learn from listening to one another," Clinton told students at Tokyo University on Tuesday. "And that is, for me, part of what this first trip of mine as secretary of state is about."

Yes, listening is good. Especially in times when we can't simply buy the biggest stick.

Messed up world

Earlier tonight I heard a BBC News report about Allen Stanford, the financier now accused by the SEC of defrauding investors of up to $8 billion. What is wrong with people that they can steal the life savings of so many people who depended on them?

F*cked up.

Owning a bar, taking back the night

For a long time I wanted to own a bar, but as Bette and I used to say, we'd probably "drink up all of the profits."

Three of my friends from my Oracle and Larry's Angels days have purchased one of my old haunts in the Castro in San Francisco. They're updating the interior of the old Bar on Castro (which we called "BOC" though I realized too late that it should have been "BAC" :-) and have renamed it Q Bar.

Congrats, Tim, Rob, and JB!

ALSO IN SF, my good friend Mikey is working on bringing a regular Saturday night club back to the City. Hard to believe, but SF has been devoid of a big place for the gay community to dance since my "days of yore" home away from home, 177 Townsend, was torn down in 2002. WUNDERLAND opens February 28.

Documenting Guantánamo

In 2005, the UC Davis Center for the Study of Human Rights in the Americas started the Guantánamo Testimonials Project to document the experiences of those imprisoned there, of observers who were admitted in, and of guards who worked there.

On Wednesday, Rachel Maddow interviewed a Guantánamo guard about his experiences there. He says, "I felt ashamed of what I did."

(Video link)

Undoing more of Bush's wreckage

In 2006 the Bush administration reduced the reporting requirements for companies that release toxic chemicals into the environment:

The changes have made it more difficult for citizens to track toxic pollution in their neighborhoods and take steps to reduce the impact on their family's health.

In 1986, Congress created TRI in response to the catastrophic release of toxic chemicals at a Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India that killed thousands of people. For nearly 20 years, TRI has been an essential tool in alerting communities, workers, first responders, and public health officials to the presence of chemicals and has provided critical assistance in dealing with highly hazardous situations....

By weakening the TRI program:

• Companies may produce ten times the amount of toxic wastes before detailed reporting is required.
• The most dangerous class of chemicals-Persistent Bioaccumulative Toxins (PBTs) can be exempted from detailed reporting for the first time ever.
• Ten percent of communities with TRI reporting facilities (922 communities) may lose all numerical data on toxic pollution.
• Numerous toxic chemicals will lose all or a majority of detailed reports being filed, leaving the program in violation of the original statute's requirement that any threshold change retain a substantial majority of releases of chemicals.

The final rule announced in December 2006 was opposed by public health and environmental organizations, governmental agencies in 23 states, the U.S. Conference of Mayors, and more than 122,000 individual public commenters. In May 2005, the House of Representatives voted to block EPA from implementing the TRI rollbacks, but the Senate was unable to consider a similar measure before EPA finalized the changes. Moreover, the state attorneys general of New York and twelve other states have sued the agency to reverse the rollback.

You can sign a petition to reinstate the rules in effect prior to 2006 here.

Those pesky GOP ideologues

If I lived in a state where the governor was talking about turning down money from the recently passed economic stimulus plan because they were "philosophically opposed" to the stimulus, I'd be marching on the state capitol.

Yet that's just what a bunch of GOP governors are doing, including Bobby Jindal in Louisiana (and Sarah Palin who's certainly never met a federal dollar she couldn't spend in the past!).

The times, they are a changin'

The EPA is making plans to regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, Swiss bank accounts aren't as secret as they once were, I'm cheering Hillary on her trip to Asia, and Sarah Palin owes taxes on the $17,000 she received from the state of Alaska as reimbursement for living in her own home for 312 nights in 2006, 2007, and 2008 (I guess the $10 million advance she is seeking for her autobiography will help with the bills).

The rise in filibusters

Tonight on the Rachel Maddow Show, Rachel put up a graph showing the rise in filibusters since Republicans became the minority party after the 2006 election.

Here are a couple of graphs to illustrate the point (click on the graph to see it with it's original story).

The first graph covers the period from 1973 through October 2008:

The second graph from FiveThirtyEight covers only the presidencies of both Bush's and Clinton but also shows which party was in control of the Senate:

Quote for the day

From Attorney General Eric Holder:

Though this nation has proudly thought of itself as an ethnic melting pot, in things racial we have always been and continue to be, in too many ways, essentially a nation of cowards. Though race-related issues continue to occupy a significant portion of our political discussion, and though there remain many unresolved racial issues in this nation, we, average Americans, simply do not talk enough with each other about race.

Obama's housing plan

It looks like it has more of a chance of helping homeowners than anything that's come from the government so far:

The plan has three basic components. One would help homeowners who continue to make loan payments on time, but are paying high interest rates and would otherwise not be able to refinance because they do not have enough equity or their houses are worth less than they borrowed. A second would assist people who are at risk of foreclosure by providing incentives to lenders to alter the terms of loans to make them substantially more affordable to struggling homeowners. The third would try to assure there is plenty of credit available for mortgages by giving $200 billion of additional financial backing to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-controlled mortgage finance companies.

Memo to Senator Burris: Please leave

The latest revelations about Senator Roland Burris' conversations with former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich's brother have the Chicago Tribune calling for his resignation:

Let’s see if we have it right: Burris had zero contact with any of Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s cronies about his interest in the Senate seat being vacated by President Barack Obama— unless you count that conversation with former chief of staff Lon Monk, and, on further reflection, the ones with insiders John Harris, Doug Scofield and John Wyma and, oh yeah, the governor’s brother and fund-raising chief, Robert Blagojevich. But Burris didn’t raise a single dollar for the now ex-governor as a result of those contacts because that could be construed as a quid pro quo and besides, everyone he asked refused to donate.

More here.

Burris was appointed under a cloud; the sky isn't clearing. Please, Senator, just resign and allow the citizens of Illinois to choose someone new.

Thank goodness I didn't buy that condo in Dubai!

Hard times in the other desert playground.

(Video link)

More troops for Afghanistan

Obama has approved 17,000 additional troops for Afghanistan, the true central front in the battle against Islamic extremists. If we're ever going to find Osama bin Laden, it will be in or around Afghanistan, not Iraq!

The order will add nearly 50 percent to the 36,000 American troops already there. A further decision on sending more troops will come after the administration completes a broader review of Afghanistan policy, White House officials said.

Mr. Obama said in a written statement that the increase was “necessary to stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which has not received the strategic attention, direction and resources it urgently requires.”

At least for now, Mr. Obama’s decision gives American commanders in Afghanistan most but not all of the troops they had asked for. But the decision also carries political risk for a president who will be sending more troops to Afghanistan before he has begun to fulfill a promised rapid withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Many experts worry that Afghanistan presents an even more formidable challenge for the United States than Iraq does, particularly with neighboring Pakistan providing sanctuary for insurgents of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Weekend movies

I saw Push and Changeling yesterday.

Push was pretty awful: overly stylized and mostly pointless. I actually dozed off in the theater.

Changeling went places I didn't anticipate, but considering it stars Angelina Jolie in an Oscar-nominated role, I should have expected something more than a simple "mother searches for lost child" flick. Definitely worth a watch... it will push all of your "power corrupts" buttons (and hopefully get you to become a card-carrying ACLU member if you're not already).

AND IF YOU'RE CURIOUS, here are the Oscar predictions from FiveThirtyEight's software model.

Vegas is named the "emptiest city" by Forbes

Apparently we currently have the lowest occupancy levels for apartments and homes:

According to Forbes, the national rental vacancy rate now stands at 10.1 percent, which is up from 9.6 percent a year ago; homeowner vacancy has increased from 2.8 percent to 2.9 percent. In Las Vegas, the rates are significantly higher: 16 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Which no doubt explains why I got such great move-in incentives when I found my new apartment!

Think the U.S. economy is bad?

Try living in Japan, the world's second largest economy. In the last three months of 2008, their economic output shrank at a 12.7% annual rate, far faster than the U.S. or European economies during the same time frame.

Ouch.

I had begun to hope that things were bottoming out, but between the budget problems many states are facing and this story, I don't think we've stopped our descent yet...

The economic stimulus plan is now law

And President Obama has launched Recovery.gov so that we the people can track how, when, and where the $787 billion in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act gets spent.

(Video link)

UPDATE: Here is The Economist's take on the economic stimulus bill and the Geithner plan to resolve the U.S. banking crisis.